Capital investment drives 7G towards 100,000 boe/d of production growth over a five-year period while transitioning to free cash flow
CALGARY, ALBERTA–(Marketwired – Nov. 16, 2017) – Seven Generations Energy's Board of Directors has approved 2018 capital investment of $1.675 to $1.775 billion, which will target an average production range of 200,000 to 210,000 boe/d in 2018 and build the longer-term capacity to produce 220,000 to 240,000 boe/d in 2019. At the midpoint of each year's production forecast, this represents a compound annual growth rate of approximately 15 percent from forecasted 2017 average production. 7G expects its production to be comprised of 55 to 60 percent natural gas liquids by volume, which includes high-value condensate that currently generates about 55 percent of the company's revenue.
“We have a two-year growth plan that is targeted to take 7G to cash flow self-sufficiency in 2019, and a three-year outlook beyond that of profitable growth that is designed to generate strong returns on capital employed. We have a deep inventory of high quality liquids-rich assets that generate excellent well economics and attractive netbacks that are aided by our access to premium markets for our condensate and natural gas. Further, our efficient capital allocation and leading development capabilities result in low break-even supply costs, high returns at US$50 WTI, and ensure profitable growth with a strong balance sheet. These differentiating characteristics position us very well to create additional long-term value for our shareholders by investing more than cash flow in 2018, before transitioning our company to a balanced budget in 2019,” said Marty Proctor, 7G's President and Chief Executive Officer.
Seven Generations' 2018 capital investment is expected to grow production next year by an estimated range of 14 to 20 percent and build the foundation for a growth range of 7 to 17 percent in 2019. The company plans to complete a major new natural gas processing plant, expand its water management facilities to decrease operating costs, continue to advance its innovative completions techniques and evaluate the company's extensive resource base outside its core development area. Seven Generations is also today defining a new development area – Nest 3, which is generating economics that approach the economics of the company's prolific Nest 2 lands.
Fully funded organic production growth of 100,000 boe/d over the next five years
Over the next five years, assuming benchmark prices of US$50 per barrel for WTI oil and US$3 per MMBtu for Henry Hub natural gas, 7G anticipates fully funded production growth of 100,000 boe/d. This long-term outlook sees production reaching 300,000 boe/d in 2022. With higher commodity prices and the company's expected improvements in operating efficiencies, daily production rates could be substantially higher during the outlook period.
About $1.3 billion of 7G's 2018 capital program targets development in the Nest, with most of the remaining capital allocated to facilities, water handling initiatives and delineation drilling. Approximately $175 million is allocated to complete the construction of a new liquids-rich natural gas processing plant and sales pipeline at Gold Creek, which is expected to start-up in the fourth quarter of 2018, as well as the construction of a NGL sales pipeline from 7G's existing Cutbank facility.
2018 capital investments expected to drive production through 2019
7G plans to operate about nine rigs to drill 80 to 90 wells in 2018, which includes six to seven wells to evaluate undeveloped resources and two water disposal wells. Running two to three completions crews next year, 7G plans to complete 90 to 100 wells in 2018 including delineation and water disposal wells, and bring 80 to 90 wells on production. 7G's 2018 plan has fewer wells scheduled to start up in the first quarter of 2018, resulting in flat production in the first half, followed by ramped up production during the last two quarters of the year. With a focus on future growth in 2019 and beyond, 7G intends to test the Lower Montney formation within its core Nest 2 area as well as test the productivity of the company's Nest 1 lands. 7G is forecasting production of 220,000 to 240,000 boe/d in 2019, representing annual production growth of 12 percent at the midpoint relative to forecast average 2018 production.
New Nest 3 area defined, well economics approaching Nest 2 performance
Located just to the south of its Nest 2 on land acquired in 2016, 7G's newly defined Nest 3 area covers about 30 sections and contains approximately 200 potential Montney drilling opportunities. These sections were previously considered to be part of 7G's Rich Gas area, but recent results suggest better economics than those that are expected from wells in the Rich Gas area, justifying the definition of the Nest 3 area within this expanded Nest boundary. Initial Nest 3 results saw significant natural gas production, with liquids production similar to Nest 2 results. With four wells completed in Nest 3, single well economics for wells drilled in the Nest 3 area are estimated to be about 80 percent of average Nest 2 well economics, with about 100 barrels of liquids per MMcf of natural gas. With a lower liquids ratio and a shallower condensate decline rate for Nest 3 wells relative to Nest 2 wells, facility capital expenditures for Nest 3 wells are anticipated to be lower, bringing full-cycle economics closer in line with 7G's existing Nest 2 economics.
Delineating the resource base for long-term profitable production growth
Beyond core development drilling and completions in the Nest 2 lands, 7G plans a series of investments to evaluate resources and grow production for the longer term. These 2018 investments include delineation of the Lower Montney formation – pervasive throughout nearly all of 7G's lands – as well as further delineation of the Wapiti and Deep Southwest lands and additional development in the Nest 1 core area.
Continuing to optimize well design to improve resource recovery and maximize returns
7G continues to focus on testing alternative well designs in an ongoing effort to improve resource recovery and project economics. Given the company's success to date with higher completions intensities and a change in completion fluid, plus encouraging preliminary results from cemented liners, 7G plans to further investigate the efficiency of designs in a designated pad by applying micro-seismic and fibre optic technology. This will enable real-time monitoring of fracture stimulations and subsequent production performance. The data obtained, coupled with learnings from well performance results, will help design 7G's next generation of wells.
2018 investment in water handling to drive costs lower
In the second quarter of 2017, 7G faced considerable operating cost pressure, largely due to increased trucking of produced water to third-party disposal facilities. As part of its ongoing cost reduction plan, 7G drilled its first water disposal well in 2017 inside the Kakwa River Project lands. Two additional water disposal wells are planned in 2018. Seven Generations will also begin building a water pipeline network to connect these injection wells and enable the piping of produced water to development pads for use in hydraulic fracturing. This $75-million water infrastructure initiative in 2018 is designed to further reduce water sourcing, trucking and disposal costs.
2018 capital investment plan
|Nest development ($mm)||1,275 – 1,325|
|Delineation ($mm)||125 – 150|
|Water infrastructure ($mm)||75 – 80|
|Major gas processing facility ($mm)||145 – 155|
|NGL pipeline ($mm)||25 – 30|
|Other ($mm)||30 – 35|
|Capital Investment ($mm)||1,675 – 1,775|
|Production (boe/d)||200,000 – 210,000|
Trending to low end of 2017 production guidance
Due to continued restrictions, a fourth quarter unplanned outage and the potential for another unplanned outage at the Pembina Kakwa River natural gas processing plant, Seven Generations now expects 2017 annual production to be at the low end of the guidance range of 175,000 to 180,000 boe/d, subject to third-party plant reliability performance for the rest of the year. 7G is working alongside Pembina to fix the constraint and improve plant reliability. As a result of this 2017 reliability performance, 7G has embedded a more conservative outlook regarding third-party related infrastructure downtime in its 2018 production forecast.
“Including a planned outage for plant modifications and unplanned outages, the Kakwa River plant has run at 90 percent reliability on a year-to-date basis, which is below its contracted reliability rate. The plant has faced challenges due to the inlet gas composition being richer than the initial design expectations. Pembina is committed to working diligently with Seven Generations to improve the performance and reliability of the Kakwa River gas processing plant,” said Mick Dilger, Chief Executive Officer of Pembina Pipeline Corporation.
About 10,000 boe/d of production curtailed by current facilities constraints
Seven Generations currently has 11 new wells producing at restricted rates as a result of the Pembina plant processing limitations. The impact of third-party constraints and unplanned outages is estimated to be about 10,000 boe/d on fourth quarter production. This is production that will be deferred into 2018 and processing restrictions have no impact on well performance and reservoir deliverability.
7G has started building infrastructure inside the Kakwa field that will enable 7G to divert approximately 70 MMcf/d of natural gas, between the Pembina Kakwa River plant and 7G's operated plants, to better manage operational interruptions and improve netbacks. The inter-connection, along with the completion of the facility at Gold Creek in 2018, is expected to improve Kakwa River Project production reliability and add optionality to processing and market deliveries.
7G to complete natural gas processing plant at Gold Creek
Construction of a new natural gas processing plant is underway at Gold Creek, which will enable continued organic growth while regaining a higher degree of operational control. This facility will be 7G's third wholly-owned and operated natural gas plant and it is scheduled to start operations in the fourth quarter of 2018. Seven Generations plans to invest about $175 million in 2018 to complete the first phase of development, with a processing capacity of 250 MMcf/d. This investment will fund a number of basic infrastructure pre-builds that would enable the company to double the processing capacity of the facility in the future, and build two sales pipelines. With the first phase of this facility, 7G will have about 760 MMcf/d of its own processing capacity, complemented by up to 250 MMcf/d of third-party processing, for a total of about 1 billion cubic feet per day of available processing capacity. This processing capacity supports 7G's profitable production growth plans for the next several years.
To support plans to fully utilize the new processing plant's capacity, 7G will make additional investments in Super Pads, satellite pads and associated pipeline infrastructure. Seven Generations' facilities budget includes about $225 million of capital related to these activities.
Jordan Johnsen to lead 7G operations and engineering in Grande Prairie
Seven Generations has promoted Jordan Johnsen to Vice President, Operations & Engineering. Based in Grande Prairie, Jordan has played a vital role in the development and growth of 7G over the past 10 years. As the lead engineer on 7G's first Montney horizontal well, Jordan has helped lead the development of Kakwa River Project wells, Super Pads, production facility design and construction and natural gas processing. Working in 7G's Grande Prairie operations headquarters, Jordan will lead implementation and execution of 7G's capital investment at the field level. Jordan earned an engineering degree from the University of Calgary in 2006 and is a member of the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of Alberta (APEGA).
Seven Generations will host an investor day on Thursday, Nov. 16, 2017 at the Metropolitan Centre in Calgary. Investor day presentations will be webcast and posted on the company's website: www.7genergy.com.
Seven Generations Energy
Seven Generations is a low-supply-cost, high-growth Canadian energy developer generating long-life value from its liquids-rich Kakwa River Project, located about 100 kilometres south of its operations headquarters in Grande Prairie, Alberta. 7G's corporate headquarters are in Calgary and its shares trade on the TSX under the symbol VII.
Further information on Seven Generations is available on the company's website: www.7genergy.com.
Forward-Looking Information Advisory
This news release contains certain forward-looking information and statements that involve various risks, uncertainties and other factors. The use of any of the words “anticipate”, “continue”, “estimate”, “expect”, “may”, “will”, “should”, “believe”, “plans”, “outlook”, “forecast” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward looking information or statements. In particular, but without limiting the foregoing, this news release contains forward-looking information and statements pertaining to the following: the multi-year, fully-funded, organic growth that is expected; expected expansion of the company's core development inventory; expected capital investments and the allocation of capital; forecast production, production outlooks and production guidance; anticipated liquids yields; the strong returns on capital employed expected; expected well economics; the maintenance of a strong balance sheet; the creation of additional long term value for shareholders by investing more than cash flow in 2018 and transitioning to a balanced budget in 2019; the completion of a major new natural gas processing plant at Gold Creek, with a planned start-up in the fourth quarter of 2018; the capital expenditures required in 2018 to complete the first phase of the Gold Creek facility and the expected processing capacity of the first phase of that facility; the ability to double the processing capacity of the Gold Creek facility in the future; the planned delineation of emerging resource areas outside of the company's core development areas, including plans to drill Lower Montney wells, and wells in the Wapiti and Deep Southwest areas; plans to drill water disposal wells, build a water pipeline network and use recycled water in hydraulic fracture stimulations to decrease operating costs; potential drilling opportunities in the Nest 3 area; the company's aim to be cash flow self sufficient in 2019; the advancement of innovative completions techniques; expected decline rates and the required facilities capital expected in the Nest 3 area; the expected number of drilling rigs and completions crews to be employed; the number of wells to be drilled, completed and brought on production; the planned application of micro-seismic and fibre optic technology to enable real time monitoring of fracture stimulations and production performance; the expectation that the data obtained, coupled with learnings from well performance results, will help design 7G's next generation of wells; the expectation that new pipeline interconnects and the completion of the new gas plant at Gold Creek will improve production reliability, add optionality and improve netbacks; available processing capacity; planned investments in Super Pads, satellite pads and associated infrastructure; and the expectation that actual production could be substantially higher than the company's production forecasts if commodity prices improve and there are improvements in operating efficiencies.
With respect to forward-looking information contained in this news release, assumptions have been made regarding, among other things: future oil, NGLs and natural gas prices being consistent with current commodity price forecasts after factoring in quality adjustments at the company's points of sale; the company's continued ability to obtain qualified staff and equipment in a timely and cost-efficient manner; third party transportation and processing facilities will be operated in an efficient and reliable manner; drilling and completions techniques and infrastructure and facility design concepts that have been successfully applied by the company elsewhere in its Kakwa River Project may be successfully applied to other properties within the Kakwa River Project; that wells drilled in the same fashion in the same formations in proximity to the type-wells that were used in 7G's type-curve forecasts will deliver similar production results, including liquids yields; geology and reservoir quality being relatively consistent within the Nest 3 area; well results from future wells to be drilled in the Nest 3 area being similar to wells that have been drilled in that area to date; the consistency of the current regulatory regime and legal framework, including the laws and regulations governing the company's oil and gas operations, royalties, taxes and environmental matters in the jurisdictions in which the company conducts its business and any other jurisdictions in which the company may conduct its business in the future; the company's ability to market production of oil, NGLs and natural gas successfully to customers; that the company's future production levels, amount of future investment, costs, royalties, unabsorbed demand charges, facilities downtime and development timing will be consistent with the company's current development plans and budget; the applicability of new technologies for recovery and production of the company's reserves and resources may improve capital and operational efficiencies in the future; the recoverability of the company's reserves and resources; sustained future capital investment by the company; future cash flows from production; that growth will be funded with cash flow in 2019; the future sources of funding for the company's capital program; the company's future debt levels; geological and engineering estimates in respect of the company's reserves and resources; the geography of the areas in which the company is conducting exploration and development activities, and the access, economic, regulatory and physical limitations to which the company may be subject from time to time; the impact of competition on the company; and the company's ability to obtain financing on acceptable terms.
Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking information that is contained herein as a result of the risks and risk factors that are set forth in the annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2016 dated March 7, 2017 (the “AIF”), which is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com, including, but not limited to: volatility in market prices and demand for oil, NGLs and natural gas and hedging activities related thereto; general economic, business and industry conditions; variance of the company's actual capital costs, operating costs and economic returns from those anticipated; the ability to find, develop or acquire additional reserves and the availability of the capital or financing necessary to do so on satisfactory terms; risks related to the exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas reserves and resources; negative public perception of oil sands development, oil and natural gas development and transportation, hydraulic fracturing and fossil fuels; actions by governmental authorities, including changes in government regulation, royalties and taxation; potential legislative and regulatory changes; the rescission, or amendment to the conditions of groundwater licenses of the company; management of the company's growth; the ability to successfully identify and make attractive acquisitions, joint ventures or investments, or successfully integrate future acquisitions or businesses; the availability, cost or shortage of rigs, equipment, raw materials, supplies or qualified personnel; adoption or modification of climate change legislation by governments; the absence or loss of key employees; uncertainty associated with estimates of oil, NGLs and natural gas reserves and resources and the variance of such estimates from actual future production; dependence upon compressors, gathering lines, pipelines and other facilities, certain of which the company does not control; the ability to satisfy obligations under the company's firm commitment transportation arrangements;
the uncertainties related to the company's identified drilling locations; the high-risk nature of successfully stimulating well productivity and drilling for and producing oil, NGLs and natural gas; operating hazards and uninsured risks; the risks of fires, floods and natural disasters; the possibility that the company's drilling activities may encounter sour gas; execution risks associated with the company's business plan; failure to acquire or develop replacement reserves; the concentration of the company's assets in the Kakwa River Project; unforeseen title defects; aboriginal claims; failure to accurately estimate abandonment and reclamation costs; development and exploratory drilling efforts and well operations may not be profitable or achieve the targeted return; horizontal drilling and completion technique risks and failure of drilling results to meet expectations for reserves or production; limited intellectual property protection for operating practices and dependence on employees and contractors; third-party claims regarding the company's right to use technology and equipment; expiry of certain leases for the undeveloped leasehold acreage in the near future; failure to realize the anticipated benefits of acquisitions or dispositions; failure of properties acquired now or in the future to produce as projected and inability to
determine reserve and resource potential, identify liabilities associated with acquired properties or obtain protection from sellers against such liabilities; changes in the application, interpretation and enforcement of applicable laws and regulations; restrictions on drilling intended to protect certain species of wildlife; potential conflicts of interests; actual results differing materially from management estimates and assumptions; seasonality of the company's activities and the oil and gas industry; alternatives to and changing demand for petroleum products; extensive competition in the company's industry; changes in the company's credit ratings; third party credit risk; dependence upon a limited number of customers; lower oil, NGLs and natural gas prices and higher costs; failure of seismic data used by the company to provide useful information regarding the company's oil and natural gas properties and drilling, completion and production techniques; risks relating to commodity price hedging instruments; terrorist attacks or armed conflict; cyber security risks, loss of information and computer systems; inability to dispose of non-strategic assets on attractive terms; security deposits required under provincial liability management programs; reassessment by taxing authorities of the company's prior transactions and filings; variations in foreign exchange rates and interest rates; risks associated with counterparties in risk management activities related to commodity prices and foreign exchange rates; sufficiency of insurance policies; potential litigation; variation in future calculations of non-IFRS measures; sufficiency of internal controls; breach of agreements by counterparties and potential enforceability issues in contracts; impact of expansion into new activities on risk exposure; inability of the company to respond quickly to competitive pressures; and the risks related to the company's common shares that are publicly traded and the company's senior notes and other indebtedness.
Financial outlooks contained in this news release regarding prospective financial performance, financial position, cash flows and well economics are based on assumptions about future events, including economic conditions and proposed courses of action, based on management's assessment of the relevant information that is available as at the date of this news release. Projected operational information also contains forward-looking information and is based on a number of material assumptions and factors, as are set out herein. The actual results of the company's operations for any period will vary from the amounts set forth in these projections, and such variations may be material. Financial outlook information has been included in this news release to inform readers of the estimated implications of the capital investments planned by the company in 2018. Readers are cautioned that such financial outlook information should not be used for purposes other than those for which it is disclosed herein.
The forward-looking statements included in this news release are expressly qualified by the foregoing cautionary statements and are made as of the date of this news release. The company does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements except as required by applicable securities laws. No assurance can be given that these expectations will prove to be correct and such forward-looking statements included in this news release should not be unduly relied upon. Certain information contained herein has been prepared by third-party sources (and is identified as such) and has not been independently audited or verified by the company.
Note Regarding Potential Drilling Opportunities
The references to drilling locations or potential drilling opportunities that are contained herein have been prepared by qualified reserves evaluators from Seven Generations as at the date hereof. The estimated number of locations is consistent with the forecasts and development plans that were used to develop the budget and outlooks that are described in this news release. Of the 200 potential drilling opportunities that are estimated to be contained within in the company's Nest 3 area, 30 were attributed proved plus probable reserves, and 170 were attributed best estimate contingent resources in the reports that were prepared by McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. (“McDaniel”) dated March 7, 2017 evaluating the oil and natural gas reserves, contingent resources and prospective resources of Seven Generations as at December 31, 2016 (the “McDaniel Reports”). For the purpose of estimating the potential drilling opportunities in the Nest 3 area, the company has assumed well spacing of 12 wells per section and lateral well lengths of 2,500 metres. The anticipated well spacing and lateral well length is expected to change over time as technology and the company's understanding of the reservoir changes. There is no certainty that the company will drill the identified drilling opportunities in the Nest 3 area and there is no certainty that such locations will result in additional reserves or production.
Presentation of Oil and Gas Information
Estimates of the company's reserves and contingent resources provided in the McDaniel Reports are estimates only and there is no guarantee that such reserves and resources will be recovered. Actual reserves and contingent resources may be greater than or less than the estimates provided in the McDaniel Reports and the differences may be material. There is uncertainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any part of the contingent resources that were estimated by McDaniel in the McDaniel Reports. The reserves and resources information contained in this news release should be reviewed in conjunction with the AIF, which contains important additional information regarding the independent reserve, contingent resource and prospective resource evaluations that were conducted by McDaniel.
Seven Generations has adopted the standard of 6 Mcf: 1 bbl when converting natural gas to boes. Condensate and other NGLs are converted to boes at a ratio of 1 bbl: 1 bbl. Boes may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 6 Mcf: 1 bbl is based roughly on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the company's sales point. Given the value ratio based on the current price of oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6 Mcf: 1 bbl, utilizing a conversion ratio at 6 Mcf: 1 bbl may be misleading as an indication of value.
Oil and Gas Terminology
best estimate is a classification of estimated resources described in the COGE Handbook, which is considered to be the best estimate of the quantity that will actually be recovered. It is equally likely that the actual quantities recovered will be greater or less than the best estimate. Resources in the best estimate case are considered to have a 50% probability that the actual quantities recovered will equal or exceed the estimate.
COGE Handbook means the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook maintained by the Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers (Calgary Chapter), as amended from time to time.
contingent resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established technology or technology under development, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies. Contingencies are conditions that must be satisfied for a portion of contingent resources to be classified as reserves that are: (a) specific to the project being evaluated; and (b) expected to be resolved within a reasonable timeframe. Contingencies may include factors such as economic, legal, environmental, political and regulatory matters or a lack of markets. It is also appropriate to classify as contingent resources the estimated discovered recoverable quantities associated with a project in the early evaluation stage.
probable reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves.
prospective resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by application of future development projects. Prospective resources have both an associated chance of discovery and a chance of development.
proved reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves.
reserves are estimated remaining quantities of oil and natural gas and related substances anticipated to be recoverable from known accumulations, as of a given date, based on: (i) analysis of drilling, geological, geophysical and engineering data; (ii) the use of established technology; and (iii) specified economic conditions, which are generally accepted as being reasonable. Reserves are classified according to the degree of certainty associated with the estimates.
Other Definitions and Abbreviations
Terms and abbreviations that are used in this news release that are not otherwise defined herein are provided below:
|bbl||barrel or barrels|
|boe||barrels of oil equivalent|
|Deep Southwest||the “Deep Southwest” area shown in the investor day presentation on 7G's website|
|Mcf||thousand cubic feet|
|MMcf||million cubic feet|
|Nest||means the primary development block of the Kakwa River Project|
|Nest 1||the “Nest 1” area shown in the investor day presentation available on 7G's website|
|Nest 2||the “Nest 2” area shown in the investor day presentation available on 7G's website|
|Nest 3||the “Nest 3” area shown in the investor day presentation available on 7G's website|
|NGLs||natural gas liquids|
|Rich Gas||the “Rich Gas” area shown in the investor day presentation available on 7G's website|
|SEDAR||System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval|
|Super Pad||a decentralized field conditioning plant that separates field condensate and natural gas|
|TSX||Toronto Stock Exchange|
|US$||United States dollars|
|Wapiti||the “Wapiti” area shown in the investor day presentation available on 7G's website|
|WTI||West Texas Intermediate|
Seven Generations Energy Ltd. is also referred to as Seven Generations, Seven Generations Energy, 7G or the company.
All dollar (“$”) amounts are presented in Canadian dollars unless otherwise specified.
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